消费传导视角下资产 价格对物价水平的影响

本文在生命周期-持久收入（LC PIH）模型基础上分析了资产价格波动对居民消费及物价水平的影响，发现资产价格波动可以通过预算约束效应、实际收入效应、预期收入效应与替代效应四个渠道影响资产持有者的消费行为，进而影响物价水平。在此基础上，本文运用ARDL UECM模型实证分析了资产价格对物价水平的影响，实证结果发现股票、房地产价格在长期内与物价存在相关关系，房地产价格是影响物价水平的重要因素，但股票价格对物价的影响不显著且不稳定。

THE INFLUENCE OF ASSET PRICE ON CPI UNDER THE PERSPECTIVE OF CONSUMER CONDUCTION

Based on the LC PIH model, this paper analyzed the influence of asset price on households consumption and CPI. It is found that asset price volatility could affect households consumption behavior and the price level in four channels, which are budget constraint effect, actual income effect, expected income effect and substitution effect. On this basis, the paper applied ARDL UECM model to analyze the impacts of asset prices on CPI. The empirical results showed that there was correlation between stock price, real estate price and CPI. The real estate price was an important factor in promoting the CPI, but the stock price has no significant and unstable effects on CPI.