崩盘预期、真实盈余管理与资本结构动态调整

资本结构持续优化是公司财务决策的重要内容。投资者和债权人对公司未来股价崩盘风险的预期,会影响公司的资本结构调整行为。研究发现:公司未来股价崩盘可能性越强,其资本结构调整速度越慢;而真实盈余管理显著削弱了这一关系。上述结果表明,在市场规则和信息机制发挥作用的条件下,公司有可能通过真实经营活动操纵,影响外部人对公司的风险判断。在考虑各种内生性问题之后,上述结果仍然成立。

Expected Stock Price Crash Risk,Real Earnings Management and Dynamic Adjustment of Capital Structure

The continuous optimization of capital structure is an important financial decision. The expectation of investors and creditors on the risk of stock price plummeting in the future will affect the capital structure adjustment of the company. It is found that the more likely the stock price will collapse in the future,the slower the speed of capital structure adjustment will be;and the real earnings management will weaken the relationship significantly. The above results show that under the condition that market rules and information mechanism play a role,it is possible for a company to manipulate its real business activities and influence the risk judgment of outsiders on the company. After considering various endogenous problems,the above results are still valid.