| 中国钢铁长期需求:影响因素与政策选择 |
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| 引用本文： | 林春山,白龙.中国钢铁长期需求:影响因素与政策选择[J].经济管理,2010(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 林春山 白龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 复旦大学经济学院;中国人民银行上海总部; |
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| 摘 要： | 近年来,我国钢铁工业得到了长足的发展。但随着国内外市场供求关系变化,钢铁工业供求结构不相适应的矛盾日益显现。钢铁工业要实现可持续发展,必须重视对市场长期需求规律的研究,将数量增长和产品结构调整相结合。本文利用协整方程对市场经济条件下经济增长等因素对我国钢铁工业推动作用进行动态分析,探讨钢铁市场的长期需求规律,对于当前钢铁产业政策发展导向、政策选择等提出建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 钢铁需求 协整 政策模拟 政策选择 |
The Long-run Demand of China's Steel:Impacts and Policy Choices |
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| LIN Chun-shan BAI Long.The Long-run Demand of China's Steel:Impacts and Policy Choices[J].Economic Management,2010(1). |
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| Authors: | LIN Chun-shan BAI Long |
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| Institution: | LIN Chun-shan~1 BAI Long~2 (1.Fudan University,Shanghai,200433,China,2.PBC Shanghai Head Office,200120,China) |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,we investigate the long-run equilibrium relationship of China's steel demand using cointegrating technique and carry out demand simulations under different growth rates for various variables.We also estimate the long-run income elasticity,price elasticity,economic structure elasticity,exchange rate elasticity and material cost elasticity of steel demand.In the end,we put forward some suggestions about development direction, operation variables of China's steel industry policy. |
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| Keywords: | steel demand cointegrating method policy simulation policy choice |
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