影响中国农村居民消费结构的多因素实证分析

运用扩展线性支出系统模型(ELES)和面板数据模型,分析收入水平、需求弹性和收入分配等因素对中国农村居民消费需求结构的影响。研究表明:近几年来,农村居民总体边际消费倾向稍有上升,其中食品的边际消费倾向最高;基本消费需求支出大幅度上升,但低收入户没有达到基本消费需求;居住、家庭设备、交通通讯、文教娱乐以及杂项等五项均为富有弹性的消费项目,食品为缺乏弹性的消费项目,而衣着和医疗保健向缺乏弹性项目发展;不同收入家庭消费需求结构差异较大,与供给结构不协调。

Empirical Analysis on the Factors Influencing Consumption Structure of Rural Resident in China

The influences of income level, demand elasticity and rural residents′ income distribution on consumption structure of rural resident in China are analyzed based on ELES model and Panal Data model. Empirical analysis indicates that Marginal Propensity to Consume(MPC) slightly increases, of which MPC on food is the highest; the basic consumption demand greatly increases, but the low income families have not reached the basic consumption demand; housing, household appliances, transportation and communication, education and entertainment, and miscellaneous are more elastic, food is inelastic while clothing and medical care tend to be inelastic; the consumption structure varies greatly for families with different income, and is not in harmony with the structure of supply.