Analyzing social policy alternatives through modeling and forecasting of the consumption,composition, and incomes of the population

The article continues researches started under the guidance and with active participation of E.Yu. Faerman, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), within the framework of the RAS Central Economics and Mathematics Institute Population, Incomes, and Consumption system, aimed at modeling and forecasting the population composition, incomes, and consumption using a number of methods (including the multilevel complex structuring of the population and its incomes and consumption, modeling and forecasting shadow employment and incomes, and so on) and a complex statistical database. Comparative analysis of the results of four variants of inertial forecasts of socioeconomic indicators of different levels (the population as a whole, its functional layers, and their social and socioeconomic constituent groups) has been performed, including official and unofficial incomes and shadow employment; scenarios of social policy have been studied, including the income policy, labor compensation problems, and the social transfer policy; and economic consequences of the income legalization scenario have been evaluated.