关于地方政府债务风险预警研究的文献综述

地方政府债务风险问题已经成为中国近来最受关注的问题之一,风险预警研究则成为风险可控与债务管理最关键的一道防线.通过选择多个角度梳理有关文献,总结归纳经验方法,结合中国实情确定未来研究方向.风险预警模型的发展路径经历了“简单指标-综合指标”的趋势,且综合指标的分类、选择及赋权方法多样;研究方法也从一般化的建模理论到特例经验分析.中国地方政府债务问题因为其分税制改革历程的特殊性、官员激励方式不完善以及其他特有因素影响,需要结合信息透明度发展与更成熟的风险预警模型进行研究,接受更严格的管理与综合治理.

Literature Review on Early-Warning of Local Government Debt Risk

Local government debt risk has become one of main issues China faces currently and days to come. Early-warning system could be the most critical line of defense for risk controlling and debt management. Based on the experience from relevant literature, local government would search for its way out. The indicators of early-warning model become from simple to comprehensive in development path. And the classification, selection and weighting method of the comprehensive index varies a lot .Also, the research method of early-warning is from the general theoretical modeling to special case empirical analysis. Owing to the particularity of tax system reform,imperfect incentives for government officials and other factors, the government debt risk requires more stringent and comprehensive management combined with the development of fiscal information transparency and more mature early-warning model research.