中国农村金融集聚对农民消费影响的空间效应研究

研究目标:从空间维度考察农村金融集聚对农民消费的影响。研究方法:利用2009～2018年30个省份和四大区域的面板数据，构建空间杜宾模型，估计金融集聚的空间效应，即特定地区农民消费如何关联于本地区和邻近地区的金融集聚。研究发现:在全国省级层面上，农民消费不仅受本省农村金融集聚的显著影响，同时还受到邻近省份空间溢出的显著影响。分区域检验显示，一方面，东部和东北部地区农民消费受到域内金融集聚的影响显著，而中、西部地区则不显著。这一区域差异与农民收入对农民消费的影响具有一致性，但农民收入影响更大。另一方面，中部、西部和东北地区的农民消费受邻近区域金融集聚溢出效应的影响显著，但东部地区则不显著。研究表明，一是农村金融发展对农民消费具有重要影响，二是农民收入过低会弱化金融发展对消费促进效应，增加农民收入是提升消费的根本；三是加强落后地区与发达地区金融合作有利于实现共赢。研究创新:将空间效应引入农村金融集聚对农民消费影响的研究，探究了该影响的空间特征及关联性。研究价值:对农村金融集聚的消费促进效应做出了更全面的评价，为发挥农村金融促进农民消费的政策制定和实施提供抓手。

The Spatial Effect of Rural Financial Agglomeration on Rural Residents,Consumption in China

Research Objectives: To investigate the impact of rural financial agglomeration on rural residents’ consumption from the spatial dimension. Research Methods: Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and 4 regions from 2009 to 2018, this paper constructs a spatial Durbin model to estimate the spatial effect of financial agglomeration, that is, how the rural residents’ consumption in a specific region is related to the financial agglomeration in this region and adjacent regions. Research Findings: At the provincial level, rural residents’ consumption is significantly affected not only by the rural financial agglomeration of the province, but also by the spatial spillover of neighboring provinces;the regional test shows that: on the one hand, the eastern and northeastern regions are significantly affected by the regional financial agglomeration, while the central and western regions are not. This regional difference is consistent with the impact of rural residents’ income on consumption, but the impact of rural residents’ income is greater. On the other hand, rural residents’ consumption in central, western and northeast regions is significantly affected by the spillover effect of financial agglomeration in neighboring regions, but not in the eastern region. The above shows that: firstly, rural financial development has an important impact on rural residents’ consumption;secondly, low rural residents’ income will weaken the promotion effect of financial development on consumption, and increasing rural residents’ income is the fundamental to enhance consumption;thirdly, strengthening financial cooperation between backward and developed areas is conducive to achieving win-win results. Research Innovations: This paper introduces the spatial effect into the research on the impact of rural financial agglomeration on rural residents’ consumption, and explores the spatial characteristics and relevance of the impact. Research Value: This paper makes a more comprehensive evaluation on the consumption promotion effect of rural financial agglomeration, and provides a starting point for the policy formulation and implementation of rural finance to promote rural residents’ consumption.