金融开放背景下金融发展对跨境资本流动的影响研究

金融开放能够促进跨境资本流动,也具有引发跨境资本流动失衡和波动性增加的风险,而一国金融发展水平在其金融开放效应中发挥着重要作用。本文基于58个国家及地区1999-2016年的数据建立动态面板模型,研究金融开放背景下金融发展对直接投资和证券投资流入、流出以及总跨境资本流动波动性的影响。研究结果表明:金融开放本身有可能造成跨境资本流出大于流入的失衡现象,并显著增加跨境资本流动波动性风险,而金融发展水平的提高有助于在一定程度上抑制金融开放带来的跨境资本流动失衡现象和波动性风险。因此,在扩大金融开放进程中,为获得跨境资本流动的积极效应,应密切关注跨境资本流向和资本波动性变化,提高国内金融发展水平,使之与金融开放水平相匹配。

A Study on the Impact of Financial Development on Cross-Border Capital Flows Under the Background of Financial Openness

In recent decades, the degree of financial integration has continued to deepen and develop. China has also entered a new stage of accelerating financial opening. Financial openness can promote the flow of cross-border capital, but it also has the risk of causing imbalances and increased volatility in cross-border capital flows, while the level of a country’s financial development is a key factor that promotes financial openness to constantly exert its more positive effects and reduce risk costs. This paper builds a dynamic panel model based on data from 58 economies in 1999-2016 to study the impact of financial development on direct investment and portfolio investment inflows and outflows in the context of financial openness and its impact on the volatility of total cross-border capital flows. The results show that financial development has a significant positive effect on the inflow and outflow of the two types of investment;the interaction between financial openness and financial development has a significant promotion effect on the direct investment inflow and a significant inhibition effect on the direct investment outflow. This interaction term also has a significant promotion effect on both the inflow and outflow of securities in vestment, while the promotion effect on inflow is greater than that on outflow. Financial openness itself may cause the outflow of cross-border capital to be greater than the inflow, and significantly increase the volatility risk of cross-border capital flows,though the improvement of financial development level may help to suppress this risk to some extent. Therefore, in the process of expanding financial openness, in order to obtain the positive effects of cross-border capital flows, we should pay close attention to changes in cross-border capital flows and capital volatility, especially the situation of securities investment flows.A country needs to improve its prudential supervision mechanism, and more importantly, raise the level of domestic financial development to match the level of financial openness.