全球失衡原因:基于“恒久收入-生命周期假说”与国际分工的视角

本文探讨与整合了导致全球失衡的两种重要微观机制:恒久收入-生命周期假说与国际分工理论,并采用最小二乘虚拟变量计量模型(LSDV),利用31个国家1980~2008年相关指标的年度数据进行实证分析,研究结果肯定了借贷约束、股市发展、人口年龄结构、医疗福利以及工业增加值等因素对经常账户不同方向与力度的影响。这意味着,全球失衡一方面依旧可用传统的恒久收入-生命周期假说视角来解释,缓解全球储蓄过剩与全球失衡的治理措施应该从相关微观机制着手;另一方面,该结论说明全球失衡也是国际产业转移和国际分工的结果,各国工业化的差异和演进体现了比较优势原则,全球失衡是全球化时代不可规避的必然现象。

Analysis on the Causes of Global Imbalance from the Perspective of Permanent Income-Life Cycle Hypothesis and nternational Division of Labor

This paper analyses the two main microeconomic mechanisms that may cause the global imbalances in recent years,which are the Permanent Income-Life Cycle Hypothesis and the international division of labor.Using the annual data of 31 countries during 1980~2008,we employed the Least Squares Dummy Variable Model to investigate the impact of different related indicators on current account surplus.The empirical results show that credit to private sectors,stock market capitalization,demographic structure and medic...