住房抵押贷款提前偿付率的宏观影响因素分析

本文从宏观视角,运用多元线性回归模型和半参数模型等对我国个人住房抵押贷款组合提前偿付率的影响因素及其作用机制进行了实证研究。研究发现货币市场中长期贷款利率的提高,会增加借款人再融资成本,从而降低提前偿付率;资本市场作为借款人的收入来源之一与提前偿付率之间存在正相关关系;家庭人均净收入与提前偿付率的关系是非线性的;此外,与国外研究一致,房价和累计提前偿付额也会影响提前偿付率。

Analysis on the Macro Factors for Mortgages Prepayment

From the macro-perspective,this essay conducts an empirical research for the factors influencing the risk of prepayment of the mortgages and their functions by using multiple regression model and semi-parametric model.The study found that the improvement of the medium-and long-term financing costs of the monetary market will increase the refinancing costs of the borrower,thereby reducing the prepayment rate.The capital market,as one source of income for the borrower,has positive correlation with the prepaym...