我国国债资金运营效率实证分析

自1997年我国实行积极财政政策以来,拉动了国内投资需求,刺激了经济增长,对保持经济的持续、稳定增长起到了重要而积极的作用.本文测算的结果显示,国债对经济增长的贡献度自1997年以来呈逐年递增趋势,即从1997年的8.83%递增到2000年的12.23%;但另一方面不容忽视的是,国债的大量持续发行亦对民间投资形成"挤出效应",部分构成了经济增长的抵消因素.国债政策怎样在对经济增长的正负作用之间进行平衡抉择,文中提出应进一步优化政府投资结构,鼓励、扩大民间资本投资,完善政策配套手段等.

An Empirical Analysis on Operational Efficiency of Our Country's Treasury Bonds Fund

The implementation of the proactive fiscal policies ever since 1997 has played a very important role in expanding the domestic demand for investment and maintaining the stable and sustainable economic growth. The result of the investigation and calculation in this paper shows that the contribution rate of treasury bonds to the economic growth has increased progressively on an annual basis, i.e. from 8.83% in 1997 to 12.23% in 2000. What, however, allows little negligence is that the bulk and sustained issuing of treasury bonds has brought about "squeeze-out effect" to non-government investment, thus forming a offset factors to economic growth. As for how to get balance between the positive and negative roles of treasury bonds policy to economic growth, the paper gives some countermeasures such as further optimizing the government investment structure, encouraging and expanding the private capital investment and perfecting the support policies.