政府经营性土地储备供应决策——基于实物期权的理论模型

研究目的:探讨政府的经营性土地储备供应决策方法,以增加出让收入及抑制开发商囤地行为。研究方法:实物期权理论,案例研究法。研究结果:(1)将土地供应权视为基于房产的实物期权,推算出了最优供应时机和理论价值,研究发现市场不确定性将提高土地期权价值,并使最优供应时机延后;(2)案例比较分析发现,地块的实际出让时间越接近理论最优供应时机,出让收入越高,但实际上政府对地块并未做出准确的价值判断。研究结论:(1)依据实物期权模型做出的土地储备供应决策更能有效地把握市场形势波动的时机;(2)模型在中国的应用需要可监督的公共财政体系以及财政分成体制改革。

Commercial Land Supply Decision in the Governmental Land Banking System: a Theoretical Model of Real Options

The purpose of the paper is to explore governmental decision-making method for the commercial land supply in the land banking system in order to increase the fiscal revenue and avoid the developer’s speculation.Methods employed include real options theory and case analysis.The results show that 1) considering the right of supply or not as a real option based on the real estate,the paper can calculate the optimal supply timing and theoretical value,which also indicates that the uncertainty can raise the option value and delay the optimal supply timing;2) the case analysis found out that if the actual time of supply is closer to the theoretical optimal timing,the transaction price would be higher.However,government failed to catch the right opportunity in reality.The paper concludes that 1) the land supply decision based on the real options theory is more consistent with market volatility;2) some institutional reforms is further required regarding the model application,such as the public finance system supervision and fiscal decentralization reform.