经济波动对经济增长的减损效应:中国的经验证据

本文在简单文献回顾的基础上,利用GARCH和TARCH-M模型分析了中国经济波动对经济长期增长水平的影响.得出:对外开放和市场化改革不仅提高了中国经济的长期增长水平,而且也降低了经济增长的波动风险;中国经济波动对长期经济增长具有减损效应,但统计上并不显著,同时,与Stilianos et al.(2004)的分析结论相一致,中国经济波动对经济增长的减损效应在经济波动的不同阶段具有明显的对称效应.本文的政策含义是,继续扩大对外开放和深化市场化改革,加强宏观调控,对保持中国经济的持续稳定增长无疑具有非常重要的意义.

Negative Effects of Economic Fluctuations on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidences in China

Based on literature review, this paper uses GARCH and TARCH - M models to analyze the relationships between economic fluctuations and long - term economic growth. The results indicate that open - door and market oriented reform promoted long - term economic growth and reduced the risk of economic fluctuations, that economic fluctuations have insignificant negative effect on long - term economic growth, that this negative effect is characterized by obvious symmetrical effect in the different stages of economic fluctuations as Stilianos et al.'s (2004) conclusion. Our policy implication is to continue to strengthen open - door and market based reform and to enforce macro regulation.