煤炭价格对燃煤发电项目内部收益率影响关系的研究

煤炭价格对燃煤发电项目经济效益具有决定性影响,煤价与电价的相对水平决定了煤炭行业、电力行业、政府间的利益分配。电力行业的市场化进度相对落后于其上游的煤炭产业,煤炭价格波动对电力企业的运营构成较大的成本风险。内部收益率是燃煤电厂经济效益的关键指标,文章以内部收益率作为研究对象,分析煤炭价格变动对内部收益率的影响,运用回归方法拟合煤炭价格对内部收益率的影响曲线,进一步通过数值差分法得到煤炭价格对内部收益率的微分曲线即边际影响曲线,并利用双曲函数拟合边际影响曲线。研究结果表明,在较低价格区间内,煤炭价格变化对内部收益率的边际影响度较小;在较高价格范围内,边际影响度以双曲函数的形式快速下降。

A Study on Relation between Coal Price and FIRR of Coal-fired Power Generating Project

Coal prices have a decisive impact on the economic return of coal-fired power plants and relative level of coal and electricity prices reflects the interest distribution among the coal industry, power and the government. The marketization revolution of Coal power industry as the downstream industries of coal industry is relatively lag behind, hence the fluctuation in coal price constitutes an major cost risk to the electricity business. This paper studies internal rate of return （IRR） as a key indicator of coal-fired power plants＆#39; economic return and quantitatively analyze the impact of coal price changes on IRR, using regression methods to fit the internal rate of return curves. The author further calculates marginal impact of coal prices on IRR curve by numerical difference method, fitting the marginal impact curve by hyperbolic analog function model and finally make some conclusion and suggestion. The result shows that in the lower price range, the marginal impact of changes in coal price on IRR is relatively smaller, while in the higher price range, marginal changes of internal rate of return decline rapidly in the form of hyperbolic function.