Scenarios in anthropology: reflections on possible futures of the Suriname Maroons

Traditional concern with social change requires anthropologists to analyze linkages between past, present, and possible future events. Anthropological methods can contribute to speculation about the future because they incorporate what most extrapolations and forecasts lack: (1) uncertainty and surprise, (2) people’s own mental models of the future, and (3) a detailed understanding of specific cultures and the diversity within these cultures. The author argues that Scenario Planning is a useful method that allows ethnographic data to be used for thinking about the future. Scenarios are stories about possible, alternative futures that incorporate human diversity and uncertainty. How Scenario Planning works as an analytical and policy tool is explained and then demonstrated with the example of forest peoples in Suriname, called Maroons. Qualitative data from anthropological fieldwork is used to reveal Maroon perspectives on the future; identify driving forces that might influence their future; and speculate about the different directions these forces may go. Two scenarios are presented and their implications discussed. The article concludes with reflections on the advantages and disadvantages of Scenario Planning as a method in anthropology, and on the contribution that anthropology can make to development policy that envisions and plans for alternative, surprising futures.