货币因素、供给冲击与中国通胀动态特征

本文将以货币供应量和汇率为代表的货币因素、供给因素以及需求因素引入菲利普斯曲线建立了新凯恩斯混合菲利普斯曲线,并利用1995年第1季度～2013年第2季度的数据来实证分析不同因素对于我国通货膨胀动态衍化的影响。研究表明：前瞻性预期与通货膨胀惯性对于我国通货膨胀的影响同时存在,但是前瞻性预期对于我国通货膨胀的影响较大;其次,货币供应量变动对于我国通货膨胀率影响具有最重要的作用,而代表需求因素的产出缺口以及代表供给冲击的原油价格对于我国通货膨胀的影响很小;最后,人民币实际汇率升值对通货膨胀可以产生一定的抑制作用,但作用不大。

Currency Factors,Supply Shocks and the Dynamic Characteristics of Inflation in China

This paper presents a new Keynesian Hybrid Philips Curve including money supply and the exchange rate as the representative of currency factors, demand factors, supply factors and inflation expectation. By using quarterly data from the first quarter of 1995 to the second quarter of 2013 to analyze the different factors that impact the evolution of inflation dynamics of China. The results are as follows： the forward-looking expectations and inflation inertia can impact China＇ s inflation at the same time, but the forward-looking expectations have greater influence on China＇ s inflation; secondly, the money supply has the greatest influence on China＇ s inflation rate while the output gap as the representative of demand factors and the fluctuation of the price of crude oil as the representative of supply shock have little effect on the inflation of China ; finally, the appreciation of RMB real exchange rate can produce a certain inhibition, but the effect is not much.