人口结构变化与中国贸易顺差:理论与实证研究

文章首先通过构建一个开放经济三期世代交替模型讨论了人口结构变化对中国经常账户余额的影响。理论研究发现,少儿抚养系数的下降会引起储蓄率相对于投资率上升从而形成经常账户盈余,人口老龄化会降低储蓄率从而对经常账户余额产生负向影响。文章然后运用中国1993-2009年省级面板数据进行了实证分析,经验结论与理论模型预测一致,人口结构变化能够解释中国经常账户余额变化的近45%。在控制了其他解释变量后,人口年龄结构变量对经常账户的影响依然显著。文章的估计结果对替代性的经常账户余额指标、人口年龄结构变量的选取以及模型的动态设定也非常稳健。

Demographic Change and Chinese Trade Surplus: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis

This paper examines the effect of demographic change on Chinese current account balance by constructing a three-period overlapping generation model in a small open economy.The theoretical analysis predicts that the decrease in young dependent ratio gives rise to the increase in the gap between aggregate savings rate and investment rate,thus leading to current account surplus,and population aging results in the decrease in savings rate,thus having a negative effect on current account balance.Then it makes an empirical study by using provincial panel data from 1993 to 2009 in China,and confirms the predication of the theoretical model.It shows that demographic change provides an explanation of nearly 45% of the change in current account balance in China.After the control of other explanatory variables,the effect of population age structure on current account balance is still significant and the estimation results are also very robust to alternative indicators of current account balance,the choice of population age structure variables and dynamic conditions of the model.