Exploring GDP growth volatility spillovers across countries |
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| Affiliation: | 1. American University in the Emirates, United Arab Emirates;2. Lebanese American University, Lebanon;3. Dalhousie University, Canada;1. European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre, Via Fermi 2749, I-21027, Ispra VA, Italy;2. Inter-American Development Bank, Calle 50 con Elvira Méndez, Tower Bank, Floor 23, Panama City, Panama;1. Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, India;2. Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India;1. University of Alcalá, Spain;2. University of Valladolid, Spain;1. European University at St. Petersburg, 6/1A Gagarinskaya Str., St. Petersburg, 191187, Russia;2. Department of Economics, Feliciano School of Business, Montclair State University, Montclair, NJ, USA;1. University of Tunis, High Institute of Management, Tunis, Tunisia;2. College of Business Administration, AlBaha University, Saudi Arabia;3. Univ. Manouba, ESCT, RIM RAF, UR13ES56, Tunisia;4. University of Jeddah, College of Business, Department of Accounting, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia;5. University of Tunis, ISG, GEF-2A Lab, Tunis, Tunisia;6. University of Manouba, ESC, Manouba, Tunisia |
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| Abstract: | This study takes a portfolio approach to investigate GDP growth volatility spillovers among 120 countries of the world during the 1960–2017 period. Based on the ratios of growth rate to standard deviation, we rank these countries in pools of high-, midsize-, and low-income growth. Using a spillover index that is based on variance decompositions under a vector autoregressive framework, we analyze the sources of growth volatility dynamics in the world in terms of volatility proportions from and to others. We find that high-income growth countries are net transmitters, while low-income growth countries are net recipients of growth volatility. We also find that it takes several years for low-income growth countries to absorb growth shocks of global nature. Overall, our analyses illustrate the importance of partnership in risk sharing as it is related to portfolio strategies and risk management. |
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| Keywords: | GDP growth Growth volatility Spillover Vector autoregression Variance decomposition F43 G01 C32 |
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