价格因素对新能源汽车推广的影响研究

运用Bass模型探究价格因素对新能源汽车推广的影响。首先，在基础Bass模型中引入价格影响函数?1、?2 ，并利用价格数据确立价格影响函数中Pr(t)表达式；其次，利用非线性最小二乘法(NLS)根据2006-2019年新能源汽车历史销量数据对基础模型和改进模型的拟合精度进行检验，得出引入?2形式的Bass模型更适用于新能源汽车的市场规模研究；最后，使用改进模型对2020-2025年我国新能源汽车未来市场表现进行短期预测，并分析价格因素的影响机制。研究发现2020年我国新能源汽车累计年销量可实现500万辆的规划目标，2025年累计年销量却与规划目标相差甚远。价格优惠在新能源汽车2.0时期起到很好的促进作用，而3.0时期效用甚微。

Effects of Price Factors on the Promotion of New Energy Vehicles

The Bass model is used to explore the influence of price factors on the promotion of new energy vehicles, Firstly, the price impact functions?1 and ?2 were introduced into the basic Bass model, and the expression of Pr(t) in the price impact function was established according to the price data. Secondly, the nonlinear least squares method (NLS) was used to fit the basic model and the improved model based on historical sales data from 2006 to 2019. After testing, it is concluded that the Bass model with ?2 is more suitable for the research on the market scale of new energy vehicles. Finally, the improved model was used to predict the future market performance of new energy vehicles in China from 2020 to 2025, and the influence mechanism of price factors was analyzed. The research shows that the cumulative annual sales of new energy vehicles in China can achieve the planned target of 5 million vehicles in 2020, but the sales in 2025 are far from the planned target. The price concessions plays a good role in promoting sales of new energy vehicles in the 2.0 period, while the 3.0 period has little effect.