社会保障影响下的居民未来预期与家庭资产配置--基于上海居民调查的实证分析

基于生命周期理论的长期资产配置模型是研究社会保障与居民家庭资产配置之间关系的重要框架，本文指出相关研究存在社会保障影响未完整体现、缺少居民家庭调查数据的直接支持等薄弱环节。因此，本文构建了引入社会保障、未来预期的单期模型，并进行问卷调查和统计分析，得到了丰富的结论。统计显示，显著多数的受访者对未来支出会有预期，并明显影响其资产配置决策；受访者预期未来支出的时间长度满足泊松分布，其预防性储蓄有一定的统计特征；受访者的未来预期和预防性储蓄决策受到多方面因素影响，且上海和其他地区户籍的受访者在若干相关性上存在明显差异。本文的主要创新之处在于构建了反映社会保障整体影响的长期资产配置模型，同时通过问卷调查提供了来自居民家庭实际数据的支持，揭示了影响其资产决策的多方面因素。

Future Expectationand Household Asset Allocation Affected by Social Insurance---Mpirical Tudy Ased on the Urvey Shanghai Esidents

Long-term model of asset allocation based on life cycle theory is an important framework of studying the rela-tionship between social insurance and household asset allocation.But some weak points the influence of social insurance and the model is short of direct support from the household data .single-period model including social insurance future expectationa questionnaire survey.The statistical results show that most of those questioned have expectation for future payment affect their decisions of asset allocation;the length of time a Poisson distribution, and the precautionary saving has some statistical charac -teristics;differences between those questioned The main innovation of this paper a long -term model of asset allocation which the whole influence of social insurance, providing support based on the actual household data through the questionnaire the factors affect the household decisions about asset allocation.