新兴市场经济国家通货膨胀与汇率制度选择

本文利用23个新兴市场经济国家20年间的面板数据,对汇率制度和通货膨胀的关系进行实证研究,对我国汇率改革实践进行了考察。从我国的实际情况看,汇率波动的幅度越大则通胀率均值越大,2005年实行管理浮动以来我国通胀率处于明显的上升趋势。我国应该限制人民币升值幅度,发挥汇率的"名义驻锚"的作用,以此遏制通胀的进一步发展。

Empirical research on Inflation and exchange rate regimes in emerging market economies

This paper makes empirical research on the relationship between exchange regime and inflation occurrence in 23 emerging market economies from 1985 to 2004,indicating that the inflation rate is 9% low under fixed exchange regime than that of floating exchange rate regime,while the intermediate exchange regimes have the highest inflation rate;From China's actual situation,we find that the greater the rate of exchange rate fluctuations,the greater the average inflation rate is;it is more reasonable to limit the scope of the RMB exchange rate fluctuations to curb the further development of inflation.