| 基于时间序列模型的区域收入差异预测和分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘永跃,周先华,毛云坚.基于时间序列模型的区域收入差异预测和分析[J].价值工程,2007,26(9):46-48. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘永跃 周先华 毛云坚 |
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| 作者单位： | 解放军理工大学工程兵工程学院,南京,210007 |
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| 摘 要： | 当前,我国区域收入的差距明显,特别是东西部之间,由于各种因素的影响,城镇居民收入增长数量和增长速度的差距越拉越大,已成为构建和谐社会征程中的不利因素。本文搜集了全国、浙江和四川城镇居民人均可支配收入的历年数据,运用EViews与SPSS统计软件对其进行了分析和建模,预测和分析了全国、浙江省和四川省城镇居民人均可支配收入的发展趋势,并提出了相关的建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 区域收入差异 时间序列 自相关函数 偏自相关函数 预测 ARMA模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-4311（2007）09-0046-03 |
Analysis and Forecast of the District-income Difference According to Time Series Model |
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| Liu Yongyue,Zhou Xianhua,Mao Yunjian.Analysis and Forecast of the District-income Difference According to Time Series Model[J].Value Engineering,2007,26(9):46-48. |
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| Authors: | Liu Yongyue Zhou Xianhua Mao Yunjian |
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| Institution: | Engineering Institute of Corps of Engineers, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210007, China |
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| Abstract: | At present,there is obvious difference of income among regions in china,especially between the east and the west.Because of the influence of various factors,the gap of the growth quantity and speed gets wider and wider,which also gives rise to numerous problems to the harmonious society.This paper collected the data about the Per Capita Disposable Income of Urban Households from 1978 to 2004,include the whole country,Sichuan province and Zhejiang province.Under the help of statistic softwares,Eview and Spss,the paper analysed the data,set up a model,forecasted the variation trend of the Per Capita Disposable Income of Urban Households and put forward some suggestion. |
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| Keywords: | the region-income difference time series acf pacf forecast ARMA model |
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