中国经济走势分析(1998—2002)——兼论以住宅金融创新为突破口实现城乡就业联动

本文首先分析了 2 0 0 1年在世界经济增速减缓中 ,中国经济显似“一枝独秀”。然而 ,就中国经济的自身情况看 ,仍存在着一些值得重视的问题。本文进一步考察了近几年来中国经济增长的特点 ,并提出今后发展的逻辑思路 :扩大就业问题 ,包括城镇人员就业与农村劳动力向城镇转移 ,是下一步中国经济增长中需要解决的一个突出问题 ;这主要靠城镇产业结构的升级来拉动 ;而这又要靠城镇消费结构的升级来拉动 ;住宅业的发展是城镇消费结构升级的一个重要内容 ;在提高和培育居民购买力的过程中 ,住宅金融创新是关键的一环 ;通过住宅金融创新 ,推动城镇住宅业的发展和我国城市化的进程 ,可以做到以城带乡 ,以乡促城 ,实现城乡就业联动 ;由此 ,推动中国经济实现新一轮的快速增长。

China's Economic Outlook from 1998 to 2002——co-study onpromoting employment at both rural and urban areas with housing finance innovation as a breach

China's economy has achieved“a unique high growth rate”in 2001,despite slowdown of the world economy.But some underlying problems should not pass unnoticed.With analysis on the specical features of China's economic growth,the paper identifies the high priority of employment for China's sustained economic growth,which includes the high employment in urban areas and trasfer of surplus labor force from rural areas.It is believed that the solution relies upon the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structures,which is closely linked with upgrading of consumption structures of urban households.As housing a key part of urban consumption structure upgrading,finance innovation plays an important role in improving the affordability of households.As a result of stimulating the housing industry and urbanization through financial innovation,the urban development will pull the rural economy,which in turn push forward urban economy.Thus,the joint improvement of employment in urban and rural areas will contribute to the next round of China's economic growth.