中国碳锁定效应的测度指标体系构建与实证分析

从固定投入、技术、制度、社会行为四个维度构建碳锁定效应的测度指标体系,并建立实码加速遗传算法的投影寻踪模型(RAGA-PP模型),进而测度并实证分析中国碳锁定效应水平。与以往研究不同的是:借助评价指标体系有助于更为系统、全面地度量碳锁定效应;运用RAGA-PP模型有助于克服权重判定的主观性、早熟收敛等问题。主要研究结论为:除社会行为锁定程度不断加强外,中国的总碳锁定水平、技术锁定水平、制度锁定水平均呈现显著下降的趋势;东部省份碳锁定整体最弱,西部地区最强,而中部和西部各省份两极分化严重;提升低碳技术推广与运用成效,加大政府对于节能减排科技的投入力度,增加碳科技创新和技术转移与经济社会发展结合的紧密度等是碳解锁的首要路径。

Construction of Measurement Indicator System of China’s Carbon Lock-In Effect and Its Empirical Analysis

The measurement indicator system of carbon lock-in effect was constructed from four dimensions of fixed investment,technique,system and social behavior.Projection pursuit evaluation model based on real-coded accelerating genetic algorithm,that is RAGA-PP Model,was established.Thus the carbon lock-in effect level in China was measured and analyzed empirically.It is different from the previous researches.With the help of evaluation index system,carbon lock-in effect can be expressed more systematically and comprehensively.The application of RAGA-PP model contributes to solving the problems such as subjectivity of weight estimation,premature convergence and so on.The results indicate that besides the rising level of social behavior lock-in,China’s total carbon lock-in level,technical lock-in level and institutional lock-in level all show a significant downward trend.The overall carbon lock-in effect of eastern provinces is the weakest,which of western regions is the strongest,while the carbon lock-in levels of central or western provinces are highly polarized.The primary paths to unlock carbon include enhancing the effectiveness of promotion and application of low-carbon technologies,increasing government investment in energy saving and emission reduction technique,making carbon science and technology innovation integrate socio-economic development more closely.