江苏失业与物价水平权衡关系的实证研究

保持经济持续增长、物价水平基本稳定和实现充分就业是政府经济宏观调控的主要目标。文章基于江苏省物价水平的自相关性,建立了滞后一期的附加预期的菲利普斯曲线模型,使用江苏1987-2011年的CPI数据和城镇登记失业率,实证测算了江苏省物价水平、失业率以及物价水平预期之间的关系和相关检验。通过研究发现,在江苏省物价水平上升1%时,在保持物价水平预期不变的情况下,失业率可下降0.532%,失业率对当期物价水平的影响度为74%,物价水平预期对当期物价水平的影响度为26%。因此,江苏省政府部门应当在控制失业率和保持物价稳定的同时,寻求三者之间的最佳结合点,使物价与失业保持适度均衡。

The Empirical Research on the Relationship between Unemployment and Price Level in Jiangsu Province

The balanced development of employment and price stability is the important work for the development of mac ro-control.Based on the autocorrelation of the price level in Jiangsu Province,this research establishes an expectations-aug mented Phillips curve model which has a phase lag.It uses the CPI data and the registered urban unemployment rate in Jiangsu Province from 1987 to 2011 to provide the empirical calculation of quantitative relation among price level,employment rate and the expected price level.It shows that when the price level in Jiangsu Province increased by 1%,the unemployment rate can be reduced 0.532% while the expected price level remains the same.The impact degree of unemployment rate for the cur rent price level is 74%,and the impact degree of expected price level for the current price level is 26%.Therefore,Jiangsu provincial government should seek the best balance point among price level,employment rate and the expected price level while controlling the unemployment rate and maintaining price stability to remain the balanced development between price lev el and unemployment rate.