经济增长、人口变化与土地利用净碳通量关系研究——中美两国45年历史数据的实证分析

以中美两国45年历史数据为例,借助计量经济分析和Tapio脱钩模型探讨经济增长、人口变化与土地利用净碳通量的关系。结果表明:研究期内,(1)中美两国经济增长与土地利用净碳通量存在长期均衡关系,人口变化与土地利用净碳通量不存在长期均衡关系;(2)中国的经济增长对土地利用净碳通量具有稳定的正向促进作用,美国的经济增长对土地利用净碳通量作用较小;(3)从脱钩状态看,1961-2005年,中美两国经济增长与土地利用净碳通量均基本呈现强脱钩的理想状态,表明两国的经济总量持续增长,而土地利用净碳通量持续下降。国家的经济增长会对土地利用直接碳排放产生影响,影响程度与国家经济发展阶段有关,即使实现了经济增长与土地利用直接碳排放的脱钩发展,碳排放大国仍应担负起全球碳减排的重任,努力保持碳排放总量不增加,共同维护地球生态文明建设。

Study on the Relationship between Economic Growth,Population Change and the Land Use Net Carbon Flux:An Empirical Analysis of 45 Years Historical Data between China and the United States

The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between economic growth,population change and net carbon flux of land use,pay attention to the negative externalities brought by the country economic and social development from the perspective of land use.The methods used include econometric analysis and Tapio decoupling model.The results could be summarized as follows:(1)During the study period,there was a long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth and net carbon flux of land use both China and the United States,while there is no long-term equilibrium relationship between population change and land use net carbon flux.(2)During the study period,China’s economic growth has a positive effect on land use net carbon flux,while the US economic growth has less effect on land use net carbon flux.(3)Both China and the US were basically in a state of strong decoupling between the economic growth and the net carbon flux of land use from 1961 to 2005,indicating that the economic growth increases continuously,while the net carbon flux of land use declining.The paper concluded that country’s economic growth would have a direct impact on carbon emissions from land use is directly,and the influence level is related to the stage of national economic development.Although we realized the decoupling between economic growth and the land use net carbon flux,the major carbon emitters should shoulder the heavy responsibility of global carbon emission reduction,and maintain the total carbon emissions without increasing,safeguard the construction of the ecological civilization of the earth jointly.