基于生态系统服务功能的森林社会效益价值评估——以云南省森林资源为例

森林除了具有经济价值和生态价值外,还具有基于生态系统服务功能所产生的社会效益价值。论文以云南省森林资源为例,采用房地产评估中常用的假设开发法为主要评估方法,结合森林资源所反映的社会效益价值增长特征,运用企业自由现金流量折现模型中的两阶段现金流折现模型,通过构建模型体系,分别从直接社会效益和间接社会效益两个维度对云南省森林资源的社会效益价值进行评估。其中,直接社会效益包括就业价值和景观游憩价值,间接社会效益包括科教价值、历史价值及文化价值,通过模糊综合评判计算各组成部分的不同影响权重得出直接和间接社会效益模型,以多元回归的方法构建森林生态总体社会效益价值模型并计算云南省森林社会效益价值。同时,将各部分价值结果分别与云南省第三产业GDP、人均GDP及云南省GDP进行对比分析,进而对云南省森林社会效益价值现有情况进行评价,并对今后的森林资源开发提出相关建议。

Evaluation of Social Benefits of Forest Based on Ecosystem Service Function:A Case Study of Forest Resources in Yunnan Province

In addition to its economic and ecological value,forests also have social value based on ecosystem services.This paper takes the forest resources of Yunnan Province as an example.This paper uses the hypothetical development method commonly used in real estate evaluation as the main evaluation method,combined with the social benefit value growth characteristics reflected by forest resources,and uses the two-stage discounted cash flow model in the discounted free cash flow model of enterprises.By constructing the model system,the social benefit value of forest resources in Yunnan Province is evaluated from two dimensions of direct social benefit and indirect social benefit.Among them,direct social benefits include employment value and landscape recreation value,while indirect social benefits include scientific and educational value,historical value and cultural value.The direct and indirect social benefit models are obtained by calculating the different influence weights of each component through fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.The overall social benefit value model of forest ecology is constructed by multiple regression method,and the social value of forest in Yunnan Province is calculated.At the same time,the results of each part of the value are compared with the GDP of the tertiary industry,the GDP per capita and the GDP of Yunnan Province,and then the current situation of the value of social benefits of forest in Yunnan Province is evaluated,and the relevant suggestions for the future development of forest resources are put forward.