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THE SAVING RATE IN JAPAN: WHY IT HAS FALLEN AND WHY IT WILL REMAIN LOW* |
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| Authors: | R Anton Braun Daisuke Ikeda Douglas H Joines |
| Institution: | 1. University of Tokyo, Japan;2. Northwestern University, U.S.A. and Bank of Japan, Japan;3. University of Southern California, U.S.A.;4. Braun acknowledges support from the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology and the Kikawaka Foundation. Joines acknowledges financial support from the Japan Foundation and the Social Science Research Council under an Abe Fellowship. The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and are not those of the Bank of Japan. Please address correspondence to: R. Anton Braun, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, 7‐3‐1 Hongo, Bunkyo‐ku, Tokyo 113‐0033, Japan. E‐mail: . |
| Abstract: | Japan is in the midst of a demographic transition that is larger and more rapid than other OECD countries. We are interested in understanding the role of lower fertility rates and aging for the evolution of Japan's national saving rate. We use a computable general equilibrium model to analyze the response of the saving rate to changes in demographics and total factor productivity. In our model demographic factors account for 2–3 percentage points of the 9% decline in the saving rate between 1990 and 2000 and persistently depress the saving rate in future years. |
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