我国期货市场投机适度性研究

通过选择期货市场适度性衡量指标对投机是否适度进行基差和换手率的实证分析，基本判断我国期货市场存在操纵市场、多空逼仓等风险事件，投机性风险高于国外成熟市场，存在投机过度。造成投机过度的原因是多方面的．如期货法律不健全，监管存在漏洞，现货市场发展不完善，套期保值者不足等等。解决我国期货市场投机过度要从完善期货市场制度、加强现货市场建设、培育大宗期货品种、完善期货品种结构、大力培育套期保值者等方面入手。

Study on Speculation moderation in China's Futures Market

Through the choice of measurable index in futures market and empirical analysis of Basis and Turn over rate in speculation moderation,this paper judges that there are many risks events such as manipulation in China's futures market.Speculative risk is higher than foreign mature markets.There is excessive speculation.Many reasons cause excessive specula-tion,such as imperfect law and supervision,inadequate development of the spot market,shortage of hedging,etc.So,from the system,market environment and the trade rules,some pertinent suggestions in order to perfect our futures market are given.