我国农村信贷配给福利效应的实证分析

论文基于对山东省12地市的农户信贷和福利问卷调查资料,借用平均处理效应模型（ATEM）,并选择劳动力数量、户主文化程度、住地是否为富裕村、贷款是否便利和年净收入等经济信息作为农户的特征变量,利用匹配分析法对农村信贷配给的福利效应进行了实证分析。分析结论主要包括：信贷配给会损害农户福利;受到信贷配给农户的福利损失程度大于未受到信贷配给农户的福利损失程度;信贷配给的直接福利效应存在差异;信贷配给的福利效应具有外部性;信贷配给对不同的福利具有不同的传导作用。最后,基于农户的信贷需求,提出了改进农户福利的政策建议。

An Empirical Analysis on the Welfare Effects of Chinese Rural Credit Rationing

Based on the survey of farmers’ credit and welfare in 12 cities of Shandong province,this study gives an empirical analysis on the effects of the credit ration by the Match approach and the ATEM model by choosing characterized householder variables of labors number,education level,richness of residence places,convenience for asking loan and annual net income.It is concluded that the credit rationing can cost the farmers’ welfare;that the loss extent of the welfare of the farmers who are rationed is greater than that of the farmers who are not rationed;the direct welfare effect of credit ration is different;the welfare effect of credit ration has externalities;the credit ration has different conduction for different welfare.Finally,the paper brings about the policy suggestions on how to improve the farmers’ welfare at the basis of the farmers’ credit demand.