高校扩招与教育回报率的城乡差异——基于断点回归的设计

文章基于中国家庭收入调查项目数据（2007年与2013年）,在断点回归设计的框架下分析1999年实施的高校扩招政策对城乡居民受教育年限、收入及教育回报率的影响。结果表明：第一,高校扩招政策的实施使农村居民的平均受教育年限提高了0.59年左右,使城镇居民的平均受教育年限提高了0.85年左右。第二,在断点回归的设计下,农村居民的教育回报率大约为11%,城镇居民的教育回报率大约为8%,高于OLS的估计。虽然实证结果显示教育回报并不存在城乡间的马太效应,但并不意味者城乡间教育发展与收入差距缩小。第三,高校扩招政策一方面显著促进了城镇居民低收入群体教育回报的提升,有效抑制了城镇居民中可能出现的收入差异扩大的"马太效应"。另一方面,高校扩招政策使得农村居民高收入群体教育回报高于低收入群体,在一定程度上导致了农村居民收入差异扩大的"马太效应"。

College Enrollment Expansion in China and The Difference Return of Education between Urban and Rural:Based on Regression Discontinuity Design

Based on the data of CHIP (2007 and 2013), this paper makes an empirical study on the education period, income and education rate of urban and rural residents in China under the framework of breakpoint regression design. The results show that:First, the effect of the implementation of enrollment policy on rural residents is about 59 years, and the local treatment effect of urban residents is about 0.85 years. Second, under the design of breakpoint regression, the rate of return on education for rural residents is about 11%, and the urban residents' education rate of return is about 8%, higher than the OLS estimate. Although the empirical results show that the return on education does not exist between the external urban and rural Matthew effect, but does not mean that urban and rural education development and income gap narrowed. Thirdly, the policy of enlarging enrollment in colleges and universities has promoted the promotion of the return of urban residents' low-income groups on the one hand, which effectively restrains the "Matthew effect" of the widening income inequality in urban residents. On the other hand, the university enrollment policy makes the income of rural residents high-income groups higher than the low-income groups, to a certain extent, led to the expansion of income of rural residents "Matthew effect."