时间偏好、跨期选择不一致及其神经基础

时间偏好是跨期选择行为研究中一个至关重要的依据，19世纪的经济学家们通过对它的定性分析形成了一套系统的古典时间偏好理论。直到1937年萨缪尔森提出指数贴现模型并成为新古典时间偏好理论的核心技术手段，新古典时间偏好理论得以成为跨期选择问题的主流分析框架。但因其高度理性的假定，指数贴现模型也一直饱受诟病和质疑，几乎每一个关键假设都有系统的实证结果与之相悖。20世纪80年代行为经济学的兴起，行为经济学家们肯定认知偏差的存在并引入了贴现率递减的双曲线贴现模型完成了对许多市场异象的解释，加之神经经济学和神经影像学的发展为时间偏好不一致提供了神经基础，时间偏好的研究迎来了新篇章。文章将对这些研究成果进行较为全面的回顾与评述，借以推动国内时间偏好理论研究的发展。

Time Preference,Intertemporal Choice Inconsistency and Its Neural Basis

Time preference is a crucial basis in the study of intertemporal choice behavior. Economists in the nineteenthcentury formed a systematic classical time preference theory by qualitative analysis of it. Until 1937, Samuelson put forward the discounted utility model and it became the core technical means of the neoclassical time preference theory, the neoclassical time preference theory became the mainstream analysis framework of the intertemporal choice problem. However, because of its highly rational assumptions, the discount utility model has always been criticized and questioned, almost every key hypothesis has a systematic empirical results contrary to it. In the 1980s, behavioral economics rose, behavioral economists affirmed the existence of cognitive bias and introduced the hyperbolic discounting model with decreasing discounting rate to complete the interpretation of many market anomalies. Combined with the development of neuroeconomics and neuroimaging providing a neural basis for the time preference inconsistency, study of time preference theory ushered in a new chapter. This article will conduct a more comprehensive review and comment on these research results, so as to promote the development of domestic time preference theory research.