动荡中的全球经济

目前,欧美的经济形势并不乐观。美国经济泡沫破裂之后,至今仍然没有恢复,增速非常缓慢,失业率居高不下,贫富不均现象越来越严重,很多美国人将失去自己的房屋。欧洲经济衰退的危机和风险也非常严重,前景也比较悲观,且目前欧洲普遍采用财政紧缩政策,会产生负面影响。而新兴市场特别是中国很有可能保持增长,当然为保增长,中国必须转变发展方式,实现经济增长的转型。文章认为,美国最严重的问题并不是金融和赤字问题,而是没有增量的需求问题,是严重的失业问题。为更好地应对危机,恢复经济,应充分发挥政府的作用,正确处理储蓄及储备之间的关系,让市场更加高效、稳定运行。文章指出,2012年全球经济增长的水平和稳定性将比2011年进一步提升,但长期来看,全球经济的稳定性在一定程度上取决于国际社会是否有能力对全球货币和经济系统进行相应的改革。当今世界,需要一个全新的经济政策、经济秩序来更好地反映经济力量再平衡的过程。新兴市场将在全球治理以及全球机构重组的过程中发挥重要作用。中国应在创建新的全球经济秩序和推动全球货币与经济体系改革方面发挥更为积极的作用,要在关注全球经济动荡的同时,更多关注全球变暖问题。

The Global Economy in Turbulence

At present,the current situation in the United States and most of the European economic entities is unpleasant.The American economy has not recovered after the economic bubble burst;the economic growth is very slow;the unemployment rate is still very high;the gap between the rich and the poor is widening;and many Americans are losing their houses.The crisis and risk of economic declining in Europe is very serious;the economic outlook is very gloomy;and the tightening fiscal policy will impose some negative effects.But such emerging markets as China will keep rising;and transforming the pattern of economic growth is the precondition for that.The author believes that the most serious problem with the United States is not the problem of finance or deficit,but the problem of demand without growth and the very high unemployment rate.To better cope with the crisis and promote the economic recovery,we should give full play to the role of government,properly deal with the relation between savings and reserves,and guarantee an efficient and stable market.The global economic growth rate in the year 2012 and its stability will be better than that of 2011.But in the long term,to some extend,the stability of global economy will be determined by if the international community can carry out reform in global monetary and economic system.In the world today,we need a brand new economic policy and economic order to better reflect the rebalance of economic forces.The emerging markets will play their important roles in the process of global governance and the restructure of global institutions.China should play a more positive role in promoting reform in global monetary and economic system,and pay attention to both the global economic turbulence and global warming.