供应中断事件前后石油价格变化分析

突发事件造成的重大石油供应中断前后油价的变化取决于:供应中断的规模、直接供应中断恢复的时间、突发事件有无引发其他事件造成新的供应中断的可能、欧佩克对待供应中断的态度和国际社会对突发事件的干预等因素。欧佩克对各类供应中断均会作出增产决定,其总产量将达到甚至超过突发事件前的总产量。产油国战争或罢工结束时的油价基本和突发事件前相当,战争或罢工事件结束对油价的影响作用结束。革命结束时的油价要高于革命前,革命事件对油价仍有一定的影响。

Analysis on the Fluctuation of Oil Price Before and After Supply Interruption

This paper first analyses the facts that the fluctuation of oil price before and after major oil supply disruptions caused by emergencies depends on: the scale of the supply disruptions,recovery time of direct supply disruptions,the possibility of new supply disruption caused by other events which aroused by the emergency,the attitude that OPEC(Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) took to supply interruption,and the intervention of emergencies of the international community.This paper goes on to look at that OPEC will make pumping decision to respond to all kinds of supply disruptions,and the total output will hit or even surpass the total output before the emergency;the oil price at the end of the war or the strike of oil-producing countries is basically correspond to the price before the emergency,and the effect of war and strike on the oil price is over;the oil price at the end of revolution is higher than the price before the revolution,and the revolution still has influence on the oil price.