| 现代物流与对外贸易关系的实证研究——基于浙江省1986-2009年的数据 |
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| 引用本文： | 俞雅乖.现代物流与对外贸易关系的实证研究——基于浙江省1986-2009年的数据[J].国际贸易问题,2012(1):99-107. |
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| 作者姓名： | 俞雅乖 |
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| 作者单位： | 宁波大学商学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 宁波市现代高端服务业发展研究中心2011年度课题“海洋经济强省战略下现代港航服务体系构建研究” |
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| 摘 要： | 本文基于时间序列模型,利用浙江省1986-2009年的货物运输量、港口货物吞吐量、进出口总额和地区生产总值数据,运用协整理论和格兰杰(Granger)因果检验对浙江省现代物流与对外贸易关系进行了实证分析。结果表明两者之间存在着长期稳定的关系,进一步的分析发现货物吞吐量与进出口总额之间存在单向因果关系;并在此基础上对浙江省发展现代物流和促进对外贸易增长提出了相关建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 现代物流 对外贸易 实证研究 |
Empirical Analysis on Relationship between Modern Logistics and Foreign Trade:Based on Zhejiang 1986-2009 Data |
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| YU Ya-guai.Empirical Analysis on Relationship between Modern Logistics and Foreign Trade:Based on Zhejiang 1986-2009 Data[J].Journal of International Trade,2012(1):99-107. |
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| Authors: | YU Ya-guai |
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| Abstract: | Based on data including freight transportation,port cargo,total value of imports and exports,gross domestic product from 1986 to 2009,this paper analyses the relationship between modern logistics and foreign trade by cointegration theory and granger causality test.And the conclusion shows that the relationship between modern logistics and foreign trade is stable from long term perspectives.Meanwhile,there is one-way causal relationship between freight transportation and total value of imports and exports.In the end,proposals for improving modern logistics and foreign trade of Zhejiang province are put forward. |
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| Keywords: | Modern logistics Foreign trade Empirical analysis |
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