中国经济增长的动力转换与政策选择

研究目标：探究经济增长动因结构及转换趋势。研究方法：基于中国1980～2014年三次产业的时间序列数据，构造结构指数生产函数，采取指数分析与对数分析相结合的方法进行实证研究。研究发现：2008年以来全要素生产率贡献缩减是经济增长大幅减速的最主要因素；要素规模增长率下降与产出弹性缩减的双重挤压导致资本和劳动力规模贡献下滑；资本和劳动生产率增长双减速是造成全要素生产率大幅下降的主导因素；全要素生产率增长动力从以产业要素生产率的提升为主转向以产业之间要素配置结构的优化为主。研究创新：从三次产业的要素规模和效率进行考察，三个层次层层推进，为经济增长动力及其变迁轨迹分析创造更加广阔的拓展空间。研究价值：揭示了中国经济增长变迁的动因结构以及最新转换趋势，为旨在推动国民经济又快又好发展的政策设计提供了新的科学决策参考。

The Power Conversion and Policy Choice of China's Economic Growth

Research Objectives: The motivation structure and transformation trend of economic growth. Research Methods: Based on sequence data of three industries in China from 1980 to 2014, the production function of structural index is set up, and empirical analysis is carried out by employing exponential and logarithm analyses. Research Findings: Firstly,the reduction of contribution of total factor productivity is the main reason of economic growth deceleration since 2008.Secondly,the double squeezing of the descending factor size growth rate and decrease of output elasticity leads to the decline of capital and labor force contribution.Thirdly,the deceleration of the growth of both capital and labor productivity is the main factor of the significant decrease of total factor productivity.Finally,the driving force of total factor productivity growth is transforming from the industrial factor productivity growth-based to the industrial structure optimization-based. Research Innovations: From the factor scale and efficiency of three industries, the three levels promote one by one to create broader space for the economic growth momentum and extending analysis of its trajectory. Research Value: The revealing of the dynamic structure of China''s economic growth and the latest transformation trend provide new scientific decision-making reference for policy of promoting the rapid and sound development of the national economy