THE IMPLICATIONS OF DISTRESS PREDICTION MODELS FOR CORPORATE LENDING

Three literatures on financial distress prediction are reviewed and evaluated in terms of their usefulness in credit analysis. These are (1) bankruptcy prediction models initiated by Altman, (2) behavioural studies of the ability of loan officers and others to make accurate predictions of bankruptcy and (3) attempts to simulate loan officers' judgements. It is concluded that techniques based on judgement simulation are likely to be the most effective decision aids.