A time series model of fertility and female labour supply in the UK |
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| Authors: | Robert McNown Cristobal Ridao-Cano |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Economics , Science Campus Box 256, University of Colorado , Boulder, Colorado 80309, USA;2. Institute of Behavioral , Science Campus Box 256, University of Colorado , Boulder, Colorado 80309, USA |
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| Abstract: | Multiple time series procedures suitable for estimation and testing with nonstationary data are applied to UK data on age-specific fertility rates, age-specific female labour force participation rates, and women's and men's wages. Cointegration tests establish the existence of two long-run equilibrium relations, identified as a fertility relation and a labour supply equation, for each age group. Maximum likelihood estimates of these equations are consistent with the new home economics model of fertility, and tests of Granger-causality show evidence of extensive feedback among the variables. |
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