Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts |
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| Authors: | Vitor A Ozaki Barry K Goodwin Ricardo Shirota |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Mathematics and Statistics , Universidade de S?o Paulo/ESALQ , Av. Pádua Dias, 11 Agronomia/CEP 13418-900, Piracicaba, SP, Brazil vaozaki@esalq.usp.br;3. Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics , North Carolina State University , Raleigh, NC, USA;4. Department of Economics, Business and Sociology , Universidade de S?o Paulo/ESALQ , Piracicaba, SP, Brazil |
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| Abstract: | This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paraná. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data. |
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| Keywords: | fiscal capitalization local taxation property prices borders |
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