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A new approach to the effect of intervention frequency on the foreign exchange market: evidence from Japan
Authors:Toshio Utsunomiya
Institution:1. Graduate School of Economics , Hitotsubashi University , Naka 2-1, Kunitachi-city , Tokyo 186-8603 , Japan t-utsunomiya@jbic.go.jp
Abstract:This article estimates and analyses the effect of intervention frequency on the yen/dollar market, using daily intervention data. We examine using a nonlinear methodology, with the frequency of intervention from April 1991 to December 2005 as a focal explanatory variable. In this article, we also introduce a flexible target zone model that is capable of characterizing the dynamic behaviour of an exchange rate implied by the original target zone model of Krugman and its modifications. The empirical results show the importance of considering the threshold effect when analysing the effect of intervention due to the presence of asymmetry in the foreign exchange market. Moreover, we show that a high frequency intervention stabilizes the exchange rate by reducing exchange rate volatility, especially when the yen appreciates.
Keywords:foreign exchange intervention  intervention frequency  exchange rate volatility  threshold modelling  asymmetric volatility
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