The conditional influence of term spread and pattern changes on future equity returns |
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Authors: | David A Volkman Olivier J P Maisondieu Laforge |
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Institution: | Department of Finance and Banking, College of Business, University of Nebraska at Omaha, Omaha, NE 68182, USA |
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Abstract: | We extend previous research examining the relation between interest rates and equity returns using a multivariate analysis of covariance model with a dynamic yield curve and conditioned term spread. We find yield pattern changes predict economic equity returns; that the long end-of-yield curve is a strong determinant factor; and, in contrast to previous research, we find no relation between a decrease in the short rate and equity returns. However, the conditional term spread captures a significant positive return indicating that the degree of decline in the short rate relative to the long rate is of more importance than the term spread alone. |
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Keywords: | equity returns market risk premium yield curve changes conditional term spreads |
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