The impact of the United States subsidies on world cotton price: evidence from ARDL bounds tests

This article investigates the impact of the United States subsidies on world cotton price in a structural framework. It starts with a simultaneous equations model of world cotton market, and then, it focuses on the reduced form. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds tests of Pesaran et al. (2001), no evidence of cointegration is found between the underlying variables. This contrasts with results found in the classical framework, which highlight a strong evidence of a negative impact of subsidies on cotton price, either in the short or long run.