The regional trade dynamics of Turkey: a panel data gravity model

This paper analyzes the Turkish export and import flows with regard to regional clusters (RCs) and bilateral trade costs (BTCs) by using a panel data gravity model. We study the role of RCs and BTCs in two complementary parts: in the first part, we use an unbalanced panel data for 180 countries over the period 1960–2012, compiled from the DOTS database. We extend these estimations by running the data at four different time intervals, each representing different economic or political regimes in Turkey. In the second part, we repeat the same exercise at sectoral level for 176 countries over the period 1994–2010, using the BACI database. Aggregate estimates show that the gravity model is very effective in explaining the export and import flows of Turkey and that all close-by regions, including EU27, have a significant impact on trade flows of Turkey. We also find that the EU Customs Union has a negative effect on Turkish exports and a positive effect on imports. Estimates at selected time intervals reinforce aggregate estimates and sectoral level analyses indicate that while some regions contribute positively in all or the majority of sectors, others contribute negatively or produce mixed results.