中国城镇社会保险发展非均衡及影响因素研究

采用基尼系数、泰尔指数测算中国城镇社会保险发展非均衡程度并对其分解，构建动态面板数据模型，分析城镇社会保险非均衡影响因素，实证检验各因素影响效果及显著性水平。研究结果表明：中国城镇社会保险发展呈由东向西依次递减态势；中国城镇社会保险基金收入和支出非均衡程度呈先下降后上升趋势，支出大于收入的非均衡程度；各社会保险项目对非均衡程度影响不同；区域内部非均衡程度大于区域之间，基金支出大于基金收入的区域内对非均衡程度贡献率，东部地区大于中西部地区内部非均衡程度；循环累积效应、经济发展水平、教育、工资水平及地方财政对城镇社会保险支出和收入均具有正向作用。

Research on Non-equilibrium and Its Influencing Factors of Chinese Urban Social Insurance Development

With Gini coefficient and Theil index, this paper calculates the non-equilibrium degree of the development of China’s urban social insurance, decomposes it and builds a dynamic panel data model to explore the influencing factors of the non-equilibrium coverage of urban social insurance and test empirically effects of these factors and their level of significance. The results show that the development of China’s urban social insurance presents a descending trend from the East to the West. The non-equilibrium degree of the income and expenditure of Chinese urban social insurance funds shows a drop-and-rise trend, and the non-equilibrium degree of expenditure is greater than that of income.It is also found different social insurance programs have varied effects on non-equilibrium level.Non-equilibrium is greater within a region than between regions.Of ar-eas with greater fund expenditures than fund incomes, those in the East contributes more to the non-equilibrium than those in the Midwest.The cycle cumulative effect, level of economic development, education and salary, and local fiscal state all have a positive effect on income and expenditure of social insurance.