境外直接投资风险的灰关联评价及案例研究

文章将灰色系统理论中的灰关联分析方法引入到企业境外直接投资方案风险识别中,依据专家评判法得出的各种境外直接投资风险因素的重要度,建立境外直接投资风险的灰关联评价模型。并进行了案例分析,对企业境外直接投资各种投资方案的风险性作出了准确的判断。通过与模糊综合评价进行对比,结果表明灰关联评价模型在境外直接投资项目的风险评价中是有效可行的。

Grey Relation Appraisal Model of International Direct Investment

Based on the risk factors importance of all kinds of international direct investment which obtained by the specialist judgement, this article introduces Grey Relation Analytic Process of Grey System Theory into the risk recognition of enterprises' international direct investment. The article establishs the Grey Relation Appraisal model of international direct investment, and carries out the case analysis, and makes accurate judgement to the possible size of all kinds of enterprise' direct investment plans beyond the border. Through carring out the contrast with the Fuzzy Synthesis Appraisal, this article concludes that Grey Relation Appraisal model is effective and feasible in the risk assessment of the direct investment projects beyond the border.