能源消费、结构突变与中国经济增长:1952-2005

能源是现代经济增长的必要支撑,但是在理论上,能源与经济增长的关系并不明确.本文采用向量误差修正模型结合结构穿变分析,实证检验基于生产函数的能源消费与中国经济增长的关系.结果显示,"大跃进"的终结与大庆油田的量产,引发产业结构与能源结构的变迁,导致1961年能源消费也现结构突变.这使得1952-2005年能源消费与中国经济增长之间不存在长期均衡关系,但1962-2005年二者间具有协整关系.在短期能源消费内生于经济增长,长期中经济增长是能源消费变动的诱因.需要指也的是,如果忽略产业结构的影响,会低估能源消费在经济增长中的作用.

Energy Consumption, Structure Leap and China Economic Grouth:1952-2005

Energy becomes the necessary support for modern economies.However,the relationships between energy and economic growth are not clear in theory.This paper empirically tests the relationships between energy consumption and China economic growth based on production function.Our results show that the ending of the "Great Leap Forward" and the production of Daqing Oil Field caused industrial and energy structure evolution,thus leading the 1961's structural leap of energy consumption.This situation brings about the fact that long term equilibrium does not exist between energy consumption and China economic growth through 1952-2005.However,co-integration remains between energy consumption and China economic growth for this duration.Energy consumption derives from economic growth in the short run and economic growth becomes the cue of energy consumption variation in the long run.If the impact of industrial structure is ignored,the role of energy consumption in economic growth would be under estimated.