改革开放三十年政府支出与居民消费关系的动态演变——基于时变参数模型的考察

本文利用时变参数(TVP)模型考查了改革开放三十年来,政府支出对居民消费影响水平的变化。结果显示,三十年来,我国政府支出对居民消费一直都存在着促进效应,但影响水平却经历了一个倒V型的变化;对城市居民消费的促进效应强于对农村消费的促进效应,且在两者之间的差距还在不断扩大;用于基本建设方面的财政支出对居民消费有一定的促进效应,政府行政与事业经费支出对消费具有挤出效应,而用于改善民生的支出对消费一直都保持着较高的促进效应。

The Dynamic Analysis of Impacts of Government Spending on Private Consumption Since the Reform and Opening-Up in China: An Investigation Based on TVP Model

In this paper,we use TVP model to examine the relationship between fiscal expenditure and the private consumption,since China's reform and opening-up. The results showed that the fiscal expenditure had a crowding-in effect on the private consumption. It's more effective to promote the urban consumption than the rural,and the efficiency gap between them continues to widen. Among the fiscal expenditure,to some extent,those spent on infrastructure construction had a crowding-in effect on consumption,and those ...