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| 中美贸易失衡与人民币汇率“操纵”——基于汇率与贸易收支关系的实证研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 谢博婕,西村友作,门明.中美贸易失衡与人民币汇率“操纵”——基于汇率与贸易收支关系的实证研究[J].经济与管理,2013(9):43-48. |
| 作者姓名： | 谢博婕 西村友作 门明 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 对外经济贸易大学 国际经济贸易学院金融学系,北京,100029 2. 对外经济贸易大学 国际经济研究院,北京,100029 3. 对外经济贸易大学 远程学院,北京,100029 |
| 基金项目： | 国家社科基金重点项目(10AZD017)；国家社科基金重点项目(11AZD039)；对外经济贸易大学研究生科研创新基金 |
| 摘 要： | 基于2002年1月至2011年12月的月度数据,运用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型,分别从总体和分行业的角度,探讨人民币兑美元实际汇率、汇率波动率与中美贸易收支之间的关系。研究结果表明,无论长期还是短期,人民币汇率水平和汇率波动率对中美两国之间总体和分行业贸易收支差额均不会产生显著影响。该结论意味着无论长期还是短期,中国政府都无法通过汇率操纵来达到扩大中美贸易收支顺差的目的。 |
| 关 键 词： | 汇率操纵 汇率波动 贸易收支 自回归分布滞后模型 |
Sino-US Trade Imbalance and the RMB Exchange Rate "Manipulation"---An Empirical Study Based on the Relationship between Exchange Rate and Trade Balance |
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| Xie Bojie , Xicun Youzuo , Men Ming.Sino-US Trade Imbalance and the RMB Exchange Rate "Manipulation"---An Empirical Study Based on the Relationship between Exchange Rate and Trade Balance[J].Economy and Management,2013(9):43-48. | |
| Authors: | Xie Bojie Xicun Youzuo Men Ming |
| Institution: | 1.Department of Finance of School of International Trade and Economic, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China; 2. Institute for International Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China;3. Remote College, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China) |
| Abstract: | Based on the monthly data from January in 2002 to December in 2011, the paper uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag （ARDL）model, to discuss the relationship among the RMB real exchange rate, the exchange rate fluctuation rate and the trade balance between China and the United States. The results show that, regardless of the long-term or short- term, the RMB exchange rate and exchange rate volatility both have no significant influence on trade balance between China and the United States. This means that the Chinese government can not be exchange rate manipulation in order to achieve the expansion of Sino US trade balance of payments surplus objective regardless of long term or short term. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate manipulation Exchange rate volatility Autoregressive distributed lag model Trade balance |
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