基于GIS的盗窃犯罪稳定时空热点和环境要素分析

以长沙市某区为实证研究案例,运用地理信息系统（GIS）空间分析和新兴时空分析法研究盗窃犯罪在空间及时空结合的三维角度下的分异格局和环境特征。采用核密度分析法和Dbscan空间聚类分析法直观识别犯罪热点;构建时空立方体模型分析犯罪热点的时空变化特征,剔除短暂存续的“伪热点”,识别出稳定时空犯罪热点。研究表明：研究区域内盗窃犯罪在空间分布上具有显著空间分异特征及空间转移性,犯罪热点集中分布于北部区域,呈现城市中心距离衰减的特点;在时空分布上具有高度集聚性,研究区内仅2.11%的区块中聚集了62.4%的盗窃犯罪;结合稳定时空热点的空间环境特征,可将热点分为商业聚集型、棚户区型及学校周边型,建议犯罪防控应充分考虑城市建成环境中消极因素对犯罪行为的影响。这些研究可为后续犯罪空间影响因素研究奠定基础,也为犯罪的精准防控提供现实依据。

GIS-based Analysis of Stable Space-time Hotspots and Environmental Elements of Theft Crimes

Taking a district in Changsha City as an empirical case study, and GIS spatial analysis and emerging space-time analysis are used to study the divergent patterns and environmental characteristics of theft crimes in a three-dimensional perspective combining space and space-time. Kernel density analysis and Dbscan spatial clustering analysis were used to intuitively identify crime hotspots.The spatio-temporal cube model was constructed to analyze the space-time variation characteristics of crime hotspots, eliminate the "pseudo-hotspots" that survive for a short period of time, and identify the stable space-time crime hotspots. The study shows that the spatial distribution of theft crimes in the study area has significant spatial variation and spatial shift, and the crime hotspots are concentrated in the northern region, showing the characteristics of decaying distance from the urban center; the spatio-temporal distribution has a high degree of agglomeration, with only 2.11% of the blocks in the study area gathering 62.4% of theft crimes; combined with the spatial environment characteristics of stable space-time hotspots, the hotspots can be divided into commercial aggregation type, shanty town type and school periphery type, suggesting that crime prevention and control should fully consider the influence of negative factors in the built-up urban environment on criminal behavior. These studies can lay the foundation for the subsequent research on the spatial influence factors of crime, and also provide a realistic basis for the precise prevention and control of crime.