Endogeneity in the mutual fund flow–performance relationship: An instrumental variables solution |
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Institution: | 1. American University of Beirut, Lebanon;2. Chicago State University, United States;3. Tanta University, College of Business, Tanta, Egypt;1. University of New England, United States;2. Chicago State University, United States;3. Tanta University, Egypt;1. Chicago State University, USA;2. Tanta University, Egypt;1. Washington State University, United States;2. University of Massachusetts Boston, United States |
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Abstract: | We use an instrumental variables (IV) approach to examine the effects of dynamic endogeneity when estimating the relationship between mutual fund flows and performance. Unlike the one-stage estimation approach commonly used in prior research, the IV approach allows us to address reverse causality between flow and performance. Through rigorous exclusion tests, we conclude that fund media coverage, risk ranking, and management structure win in a horse race as exogenous instruments for fund flow, while the fund turnover ratio and institutional share perform best as instruments for fund performance. We then demonstrate that endogeneity bias leads to inaccurate inferences in one-stage estimates, as evidenced by the reversals of the signs of flow and performance coefficient estimates when we switch to the IV approach. We find that careful attention to model specification allows us to resolve several widespread inconsistencies in the literature that were likely driven by model misspecification. |
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Keywords: | Mutual funds Fund flows Portfolio performance Endogeneity Instrumental variables 2SLS Reverse causality Model specification Flow–performance relationship |
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